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Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Cultural Leonesa

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

UPCOMING

Mérida AD

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-110.1%0-24.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.1%1-113.0%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.1%2-18.4%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.9%3-13.6%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% 52.4% 1.91 -21.7%

Draw 33.1% 34.7% 2.88 -4.7%

Away win 26.0% 25.6% 3.90 +0.8%

Over 2.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

Over 3.5 20.9% 25.0% 4.00 -9.8%

BTTS 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

Home O1.5 38.4% 47.6% 2.10 -19.4%

Away O1.5 26.1% 26.7% 3.75 -1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 41% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 14.1%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cultural Leonesa1.3

Mérida AD0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CULTURAL LEONESA · PPG 1.50

MÉRIDA AD · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cultural Leonesa (H) 41.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -21.7%

Draw 33.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -4.7%

Mérida AD (A) 26.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cultural Leonesa face Mérida AD in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cultural Leonesa a 41% chance, the draw 33% and Mérida AD 26%, so Cultural Leonesa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Cultural Leonesa and 0.9 for Mérida AD (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cultural Leonesa are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.10 for Mérida AD. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.7%.

Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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