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Deportivo La Coruña II vs Cacereño Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 10:00

Deportivo La Coruña II

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Cacereño

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-19.6%0-24.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.1%1-112.9%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.8%2-18.7%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.0%3-13.9%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 39.2% 2.55 +1.7%

Draw 31.8% 34.5% 2.90 -7.8%

Away win 28.3% 38.2% 2.62 -15.5%

Over 2.5 43.0% 40.0% 2.50 +7.5%

Over 3.5 25.5% 22.2% 4.50 +8.8%

BTTS 48.0% 47.6% 2.10 +0.8%

Home O1.5 39.4% 33.3% 3.00 +18.2%

Away O1.5 28.6% 30.8% 3.25 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.0%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 0–1 9.6%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo La Coruña II1.3

Cacereño1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO LA CORUÑA II · PPG 1.50

CACEREÑO · PPG 1.31

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.36, combined xG 2.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo La Coruña II (H) 39.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +1.7%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -7.8%

Cacereño (A) 28.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo La Coruña II face Cacereño in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo La Coruña II a 40% chance, the draw 32% and Cacereño 28%, so Deportivo La Coruña II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportivo La Coruña II and 1.0 for Cacereño (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo La Coruña II are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.31 for Cacereño. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +23.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Deportivo La Coruña II vs Cacereño Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions