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Pontevedra vs Arenas Getxo Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:45

Pontevedra

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

UPCOMING

Arenas Getxo

PPG 0.97 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-18.6%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.1%1-112.4%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-19.0%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.9%3-14.3%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 55.6% 1.80 -17.2%

Draw 31.6% 31.3% 3.20 +1.1%

Away win 22.5% 23.8% 4.20 -3.3%

Over 2.5 42.8% 45.5% 2.20 -5.8%

Over 3.5 25.5% 25.0% 4.00 +1.2%

BTTS 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 48.8% 2.05 -18.2%

Away O1.5 25.4% 26.0% 3.85 -1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 5.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 46% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 14.1%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pontevedra1.4

Arenas Getxo0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTEVEDRA · PPG 1.62

ARENAS GETXO · PPG 0.97

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Pontevedra (H) 46.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -17.2%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +1.1%

Arenas Getxo (A) 22.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pontevedra face Arenas Getxo in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pontevedra a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Arenas Getxo 23%, so Pontevedra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Pontevedra and 0.9 for Arenas Getxo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pontevedra are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.97 for Arenas Getxo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.9%.

Pontevedra vs Arenas Getxo Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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