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Mirandes vs UD Ourense Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:30

Mirandes

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

UPCOMING

UD Ourense

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-110.4%0-24.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.3%1-113.1%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-18.2%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.8%3-13.5%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 66.7% 1.50 -38.4%

Draw 32.5% 28.6% 3.50 +13.8%

Away win 26.4% 16.7% 6.00 +35.0%

Over 2.5 42.2% 48.1% 2.08 -12.2%

Over 3.5 20.9% 26.7% 3.75 -13.0%

BTTS 48.0% 48.8% 2.05 -1.6%

Home O1.5 37.5% 55.6% 1.80 -32.5%

Away O1.5 26.1% 20.0% 5.00 +18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 41% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mirandes1.3

UD Ourense0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.2% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MIRANDES · PPG 1.50

UD OURENSE · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.34, combined xG 2.17 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mirandes (H) 41.1%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -38.4%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +13.8%

UD Ourense (A) 26.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +35.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mirandes face UD Ourense in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mirandes a 41% chance, the draw 33% and UD Ourense 26%, so Mirandes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Mirandes and 0.9 for UD Ourense (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mirandes are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for UD Ourense. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +41.5%.

Mirandes vs UD Ourense Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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