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Athletic Club II vs Real Avilés Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:15

Athletic Club II

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

UPCOMING

Real Avilés

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-19.3%0-24.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.2%1-112.8%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-18.8%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-14.0%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 48.8% 2.05 -9.4%

Draw 31.4% 34.5% 2.90 -8.9%

Away win 24.4% 30.8% 3.25 -12.4%

Over 2.5 43.8% 50.0% 2.00 -12.4%

Over 3.5 25.5% 29.4% 3.40 -8.0%

BTTS 48.0% 57.8% 1.73 -17.0%

Home O1.5 39.5% 47.6% 2.10 -17.1%

Away O1.5 27.0% 33.3% 3.00 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.0%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Club II1.4

Real Avilés1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC CLUB II · PPG 1.55

REAL AVILÉS · PPG 1.31

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Club II (H) 44.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -9.4%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.9%

Real Avilés (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club II face Real Avilés in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Club II a 44% chance, the draw 31% and Real Avilés 24%, so Athletic Club II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Athletic Club II and 1.0 for Real Avilés (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Club II are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.31 for Real Avilés. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.5%.

Athletic Club II vs Real Avilés Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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