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Narpes Kraft vs VPS B Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 15:30

Narpes Kraft

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

VPS B

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.8% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.1%0-21.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-01.6%1-13.5%1-23.8%1-32.8%1-4+2.7%2 2-02.4%2-15.3%2-25.9%2-34.3%2-4+4.1%3 3-02.4%3-15.4%3-26.0%3-34.4%3-4+4.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-18.8%4+-29.8%4+-37.2%4+-4+6.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 42.0% 2.38 +28.0%

Draw 17.7% 26.3% 3.80 -19.6%

Away win 28.4% 44.4% 2.25 -21.7%

Over 2.5 79.8% 85.5% 1.17 -6.6%

Over 3.5 55.9% 71.4% 1.40 -21.7%

BTTS 69.4% 85.5% 1.17 -18.8%

Home O1.5 75.9% 71.4% 1.40 +6.3%

Away O1.5 68.2% 71.4% 1.40 -4.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 31%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 85%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob69.4%

H 54% / xG 3.1-2.2 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 6.0%

#2 2–2 5.9%

#3 3–1 5.4%

#4 2–1 5.3%

#5 4–2 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Narpes Kraft3.1

VPS B2.2

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.8% · O3.5 PROB 55.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NARPES KRAFT · PPG 1.20

VPS B · PPG 1.40

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Narpes Kraft (H) 53.8%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +28.0%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -19.6%

VPS B (A) 28.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Narpes Kraft face VPS B in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Narpes Kraft a 54% chance, the draw 18% and VPS B 28%, so Narpes Kraft are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Narpes Kraft and 2.2 for VPS B (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Narpes Kraft are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.40 for VPS B. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +39.8%.

Narpes Kraft vs VPS B Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

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