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Kari vs KFA Prediction— Iceland

Sunday, July 12, 2026

Kari

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

KFA

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.4%0-21.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-02.9%1-14.4%1-23.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-04.5%2-17.0%2-25.4%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.8%3-17.4%3-25.7%3-32.9%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-112.8%4+-29.9%4+-35.1%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.3% — — —

Draw 17.7% — — —

Away win 24.1% — — —

Over 2.5 72.1% — — —

Over 3.5 52.6% — — —

BTTS 69.3% — — —

Home O1.5 75.9% — — —

Away O1.5 50.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob69.3%

H 58% / xG 3.2-1.5 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.4%

#2 2–1 7.0%

#3 4–1 5.8%

#4 3–2 5.7%

#5 2–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kari3.2

KFA1.5

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.1% · O3.5 PROB 52.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KARI · PPG 1.80

KFA · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=58.3%

Win probability 1X2

Kari (H) 58.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

KFA (A) 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kari face KFA in Iceland on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kari a 58% chance, the draw 18% and KFA 24%, so Kari are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Kari and 1.5 for KFA (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kari are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.60 for KFA.

Kari vs KFA Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland Predictions