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Selfoss vs Hviti Riddarinn Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 16:00

Selfoss

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hviti Riddarinn

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.2%0-21.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.5%1-16.0%1-24.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.3%2-18.4%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.9%3-17.8%3-25.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-110.7%4+-27.2%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.4% — — —

Draw 19.6% — — —

Away win 20.0% — — —

Over 2.5 69.9% — — —

Over 3.5 49.1% — — —

BTTS 63.2% — — —

Home O1.5 71.4% — — —

Away O1.5 38.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 25%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.2%

H 60% / xG 2.8-1.3 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 3–1 7.8%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 2–0 6.3%

#5 3–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Selfoss2.8

Hviti Riddarinn1.3

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.9% · O3.5 PROB 49.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SELFOSS · PPG 2.00

HVITI RIDDARINN · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=60.4%

Win probability 1X2

Selfoss (H) 60.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hviti Riddarinn (A) 20.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Selfoss face Hviti Riddarinn in Iceland on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Selfoss a 60% chance, the draw 20% and Hviti Riddarinn 20%, so Selfoss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Selfoss and 1.3 for Hviti Riddarinn (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Selfoss are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Hviti Riddarinn.

Selfoss vs Hviti Riddarinn Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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