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Volsungur vs Afturelding Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 14:00

Volsungur

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Afturelding

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.1% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-14.1%0-25.8%0-35.6%0-4+8.2%1 1-02.0%1-15.6%1-28.1%1-37.8%1-4+11.3%2 2-01.3%2-13.9%2-25.6%2-35.4%2-4+7.8%3 3-00.6%3-11.8%3-22.6%3-32.5%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-21.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.6% 15.2% 6.60 +9.7%

Draw 16.6% 19.0% 5.25 -7.7%

Away win 65.8% 75.2% 1.33 -12.5%

Over 2.5 72.1% 78.1% 1.28 -7.7%

Over 3.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

BTTS 63.2% 69.4% 1.44 -9.0%

Home O1.5 41.4% 36.4% 2.75 +13.9%

Away O1.5 69.1% 82.0% 1.22 -15.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 25%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob63.2%

A 66% / xG 1.4-2.9 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.1%

#2 1–3 7.8%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 0–2 5.8%

#5 0–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Volsungur1.4

Afturelding2.9

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.1% · O3.5 PROB 52.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VOLSUNGUR · PPG 0.83

AFTURELDING · PPG 2.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Volsungur (H) 17.6%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +9.7%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -7.7%

Afturelding (A) 65.8%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Volsungur face Afturelding in Iceland on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Volsungur a 18% chance, the draw 17% and Afturelding 66%, so Afturelding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Volsungur and 2.9 for Afturelding (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Volsungur are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 2.00 for Afturelding. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +13.9%.

Volsungur vs Afturelding Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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