Today / Finland - Kakkonen Group C / Vaajakoski vs Jaro II

Vaajakoski vs Jaro II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 13:00

Vaajakoski

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jaro II

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.5% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.2%0-21.4%0-31.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-01.6%1-13.7%1-24.1%1-33.1%1-4+2.9%2 2-02.4%2-15.4%2-26.1%2-34.6%2-4+4.3%3 3-02.4%3-15.3%3-26.0%3-34.5%3-4+4.3%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-18.1%4+-29.1%4+-36.8%4+-4+6.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 43.5% 2.30 +23.3%

Draw 19.0% 26.3% 3.80 -16.7%

Away win 27.4% 43.5% 2.30 -22.2%

Over 2.5 79.5% 85.5% 1.17 -7.0%

Over 3.5 53.0% 71.4% 1.40 -25.8%

BTTS 69.4% 84.7% 1.18 -18.1%

Home O1.5 75.9% 71.4% 1.40 +6.3%

Away O1.5 68.2% 71.4% 1.40 -4.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 31%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 85%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob69.4%

H 54% / xG 2.9-2.2 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.1%

#2 3–2 6.0%

#3 2–1 5.4%

#4 3–1 5.3%

#5 2–3 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaajakoski2.9

Jaro II2.2

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 53.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VAAJAKOSKI · PPG 1.20

JARO II · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.20) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Vaajakoski (H) 53.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +23.3%

Draw 19.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -16.7%

Jaro II (A) 27.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaajakoski face Jaro II in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaajakoski a 54% chance, the draw 19% and Jaro II 27%, so Vaajakoski are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Vaajakoski and 2.2 for Jaro II (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaajakoski are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.50 for Jaro II. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +29.3%.

Vaajakoski vs Jaro II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group C Predictions