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Arsenal D. vs Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 13:00

Arsenal D.

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vitebsk

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-110.3%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.8%1-112.9%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.1%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.1%3-13.4%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 40.0% 2.50 +17.0%

Draw 29.2% 34.5% 2.90 -9.2%

Away win 24.0% 37.0% 2.70 -21.1%

Over 2.5 45.1% 43.7% 2.29 +3.3%

Over 3.5 24.7% 24.4% 4.10 +0.8%

BTTS 48.4% 52.4% 1.91 -7.6%

Home O1.5 39.8% 36.4% 2.75 +9.4%

Away O1.5 21.2% 33.9% 2.95 -22.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 17%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 17%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–0 15.8%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 0–1 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal D.1.3

Vitebsk0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.1% · O3.5 PROB 24.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL D. · PPG 1.33

VITEBSK · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal D. (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +17.0%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.2%

Vitebsk (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal D. face Vitebsk in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal D. a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Vitebsk 24%, so Arsenal D. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Arsenal D. and 0.8 for Vitebsk (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal D. are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.86 for Vitebsk. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.0%.

Arsenal D. vs Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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