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FC Gomel vs Belshina Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 20 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 17:00

FC Gomel

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Belshina

PPG 0.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.6% vs bookmaker-implied 77.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-13.1%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.3%1-17.3%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.5%2-18.6%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.4%3-16.8%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-16.9%4+-22.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.6% 77.5% 1.29 -8.9%

Draw 19.4% 21.7% 4.60 -6.5%

Away win 10.0% 10.0% 10.00 0.0%

Over 2.5 58.9% 57.8% 1.73 +1.9%

Over 3.5 36.2% 37.3% 2.68 -3.0%

BTTS 47.2% 45.5% 2.20 +3.8%

Home O1.5 65.8% 69.4% 1.44 -5.3%

Away O1.5 16.7% 14.8% 6.75 +7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 71% / xG 2.4-0.6 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.5%

#2 3–0 11.4%

#3 1–0✓ 12.3%

#4 1–1 7.3%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Gomel2.4

Belshina0.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC GOMEL · PPG 1.70

BELSHINA · PPG 0.12

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.76 for Home, form 1.70 vs 0.12 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FC Gomel (H) 70.6%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -8.9%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -6.5%

Belshina (A) 10.0%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV 0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Gomel face Belshina in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Gomel a 71% chance, the draw 19% and Belshina 10%, so FC Gomel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for FC Gomel and 0.6 for Belshina (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Gomel are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.12 for Belshina. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 1-0.

FC Gomel vs Belshina Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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