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Bate Borisov vs FC Minsk Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:00

Bate Borisov

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

FC Minsk

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-113.9%0-27.5%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.5%1-113.5%1-27.3%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.0%2-16.5%2-23.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.9%3-12.1%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 43.5% 2.30 -19.7%

Draw 30.7% 34.5% 2.90 -11.0%

Away win 34.4% 34.5% 2.90 -0.2%

Over 2.5 43.1% 48.1% 2.08 -10.3%

Over 3.5 20.7% 28.2% 3.54 -16.0%

BTTS 47.2% 54.6% 1.83 -13.6%

Home O1.5 30.9% 41.0% 2.44 -24.6%

Away O1.5 32.8% 34.7% 2.88 -5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.2%

D 31% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.9%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 0–1 13.9%

#5 2–1✓ 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bate Borisov1.0

FC Minsk1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BATE BORISOV · PPG 1.00

FC MINSK · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.11, combined xG 2.05 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bate Borisov (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.7%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.0%

FC Minsk (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bate Borisov face FC Minsk in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bate Borisov a 35% chance, the draw 31% and FC Minsk 34%, so Bate Borisov are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Bate Borisov and 1.1 for FC Minsk (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bate Borisov are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.44 for FC Minsk. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Bate Borisov vs FC Minsk Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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