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FC Vitebsk vs Naftan Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 20 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:00

FC Vitebsk

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Naftan

PPG 0.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-14.0%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.7%1-18.6%1-22.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.3%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.8%3-16.6%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-15.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.2% 71.9% 1.39 -10.8%

Draw 20.9% 23.1% 4.33 -5.7%

Away win 14.9% 12.2% 8.20 +13.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 52.1% 1.92 +2.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 31.4% 3.18 +0.2%

BTTS 49.2% 46.3% 2.16 +6.3%

Home O1.5 61.0% 62.1% 1.61 -1.8%

Away O1.5 18.2% 15.9% 6.30 +8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 13.7%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 8.6%

#4 3–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Vitebsk2.1

Naftan0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FC VITEBSK · PPG 1.75

NAFTAN · PPG 0.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.47 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Vitebsk (H) 64.2%

ODDS 1.39 · IMPLIED 71.9% EV -10.8%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -5.7%

Naftan (A) 14.9%

ODDS 8.20 · IMPLIED 12.2% EV +13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Vitebsk face Naftan in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Vitebsk a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Naftan 15%, so FC Vitebsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for FC Vitebsk and 0.7 for Naftan (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Vitebsk are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.12 for Naftan. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 2-0.

FC Vitebsk vs Naftan Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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