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Arsenal vs Torpedo Zhodino Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 11:00

Arsenal

PPG 0.89 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Torpedo Zhodino

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.6%0-26.2%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.7%1-112.6%1-28.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.4%2-18.2%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.8%3-13.6%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 21.7% 4.60 +67.9%

Draw 27.4% 29.4% 3.40 -4.1%

Away win 36.1% 59.9% 1.67 -39.7%

Over 2.5 50.7% 51.8% 1.93 -2.1%

Over 3.5 30.4% 30.9% 3.24 -1.5%

BTTS 54.3% 54.6% 1.83 -0.6%

Home O1.5 37.2% 25.0% 4.00 +48.8%

Away O1.5 36.6% 54.3% 1.84 -32.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.3%

H 36% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal1.3

Torpedo Zhodino1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL · PPG 0.89

TORPEDO ZHODINO · PPG 1.57

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal (H) 36.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +67.9%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.1%

Torpedo Zhodino (A) 36.1%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -39.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal face Torpedo Zhodino in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Torpedo Zhodino 36%, so Arsenal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Arsenal and 1.3 for Torpedo Zhodino (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.57 for Torpedo Zhodino. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +60.5%. This match finished 2-4.

Arsenal vs Torpedo Zhodino Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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