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Dinamo Minsk vs Naftan Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 15 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 17:30

Dinamo Minsk

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

UPCOMING

Naftan

PPG 0.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 80.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.1%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.6%1-13.8%1-21.3%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.7%2-16.5%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.1%3-17.5%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-022.9%4+-115.4%4+-25.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.4% 87.0% 1.15 -11.0%

Draw 14.8% 16.7% 6.00 -6.7%

Away win 7.7% 4.8% 21.00 +37.0%

Over 2.5 68.4% 70.4% 1.42 -2.9%

Over 3.5 49.4% 46.7% 2.14 +5.7%

BTTS 49.9% 45.5% 2.20 +9.8%

Home O1.5 77.9% 80.6% 1.24 -3.4%

Away O1.5 18.8% 11.8% 8.50 +35.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.9%

H 77% / xG 3.4-0.7 / O2.5 68% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.1%

#2 2–0 9.7%

#3 4–0 9.5%

#4 1–1 3.8%

#5 3–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Minsk3.4

Naftan0.7

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO MINSK · PPG 1.75

NAFTAN · PPG 0.11

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.76 for Home, form 1.75 vs 0.11 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Minsk (H) 77.4%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV -11.0%

Draw 14.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -6.7%

Naftan (A) 7.7%

ODDS 21.00 · IMPLIED 4.8% EV +37.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Minsk face Naftan in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Minsk a 77% chance, the draw 15% and Naftan 8%, so Dinamo Minsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Dinamo Minsk and 0.7 for Naftan (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Minsk are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.11 for Naftan. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +35.9%.

Dinamo Minsk vs Naftan Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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