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ML Vitebsk vs Belshina Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 15 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 15:30

ML Vitebsk

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

UPCOMING

Belshina

PPG 0.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.8% vs bookmaker-implied 89.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-12.1%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.4%1-15.7%1-21.6%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.1%2-17.8%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.7%3-17.0%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-016.6%4+-19.1%4+-22.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.8% 89.3% 1.12 -16.2%

Draw 16.9% 15.4% 6.50 +5.9%

Away win 8.3% 3.8% 26.00 +69.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 70.9% 1.41 -16.0%

Over 3.5 36.8% 47.4% 2.11 -22.4%

BTTS 48.0% 43.5% 2.30 +10.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 82.0% 1.22 -19.1%

Away O1.5 14.0% 10.3% 9.70 +21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.0%

H 75% / xG 2.7-0.6 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.1%

#2 3–0 12.7%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 1–1 5.7%

#5 4–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ML Vitebsk2.7

Belshina0.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ML VITEBSK · PPG 1.62

BELSHINA · PPG 0.11

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.16 for Home, form 1.62 vs 0.11 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

ML Vitebsk (H) 74.8%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV -16.2%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +5.9%

Belshina (A) 8.3%

ODDS 26.00 · IMPLIED 3.8% EV +69.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

ML Vitebsk face Belshina in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ML Vitebsk a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Belshina 8%, so ML Vitebsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for ML Vitebsk and 0.6 for Belshina (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ML Vitebsk are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.11 for Belshina. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +25.7%.

ML Vitebsk vs Belshina Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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