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Gomel vs Neman Grodno Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 17:45

Gomel

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Neman Grodno

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+19.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-19.4%0-23.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.0%1-112.6%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-18.4%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.8%3-13.7%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 44.4% 2.25 +19.5%

Draw 27.2% 34.5% 2.90 -12.7%

Away win 19.7% 33.3% 3.00 -24.5%

Over 2.5 44.2% 46.1% 2.17 -4.1%

Over 3.5 23.9% 26.5% 3.78 -5.8%

BTTS 48.4% 54.1% 1.85 -10.5%

Home O1.5 41.2% 41.0% 2.44 +0.5%

Away O1.5 21.2% 31.8% 3.14 -20.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 53% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 1–0 16.0%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gomel1.3

Neman Grodno0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.2% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GOMEL · PPG 2.17

NEMAN GRODNO · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.17) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Gomel (H) 53.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +19.5%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.7%

Neman Grodno (A) 19.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -24.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gomel face Neman Grodno in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gomel a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Neman Grodno 20%, so Gomel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gomel and 0.8 for Neman Grodno (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gomel are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.67 for Neman Grodno. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Gomel vs Neman Grodno Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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