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Galway Utd vs Sligo Rovers Prediction— Ireland

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 16:00

Galway Utd

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sligo Rovers

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-16.8%0-23.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.6%1-111.4%1-25.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.6%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.0%3-15.4%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 58.8% 1.70 -11.4%

Draw 24.7% 25.6% 3.90 -2.2%

Away win 23.3% 22.5% 4.45 +2.2%

Over 2.5 54.0% 58.8% 1.70 -8.2%

Over 3.5 32.9% 35.7% 2.80 -7.9%

BTTS 53.8% 59.9% 1.67 -10.2%

Home O1.5 52.5% 58.8% 1.70 -10.8%

Away O1.5 23.7% 31.3% 3.20 -14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.8%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Galway Utd1.7

Sligo Rovers0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GALWAY UTD · PPG 1.40

SLIGO ROVERS · PPG 0.73

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

Galway Utd (H) 52.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -11.4%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.2%

Sligo Rovers (A) 23.3%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Galway Utd face Sligo Rovers in Ireland on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Galway Utd a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Sligo Rovers 23%, so Galway Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Galway Utd and 0.9 for Sligo Rovers (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Galway Utd are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.73 for Sligo Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Galway Utd vs Sligo Rovers Prediction— Ireland

Match Preview & Prediction

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