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Leiknir R. vs Grotta Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 19:15

Leiknir R.

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Grotta

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.0%0-22.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.5%1-18.7%1-25.8%1-32.6%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.0%2-19.4%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.1%3-16.8%3-24.6%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-16.1%4+-24.1%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 41.7% 2.40 +28.9%

Draw 22.1% 27.0% 3.70 -10.9%

Away win 24.1% 41.7% 2.40 -25.3%

Over 2.5 66.7% 69.0% 1.45 -3.3%

Over 3.5 44.1% 46.5% 2.15 -5.2%

BTTS 63.2% 71.4% 1.40 -11.5%

Home O1.5 62.5% 54.6% 1.83 +14.4%

Away O1.5 38.4% 54.6% 1.83 -29.7%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.2%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leiknir R.2.2

Grotta1.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LEIKNIR R. · PPG 1.83

GROTTA · PPG 1.67

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.83), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Leiknir R. (H) 53.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +28.9%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.9%

Grotta (A) 24.1%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leiknir R. face Grotta in Iceland on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leiknir R. a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Grotta 24%, so Leiknir R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Leiknir R. and 1.3 for Grotta (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leiknir R. are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.67 for Grotta. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.7%.

Leiknir R. vs Grotta Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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