Today / Iceland / Keflavik vs Fram
Keflavik vs Fram Prediction— Iceland
Regular Season - 13 ·Monday, July 6, 2026, 19:15
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
A 44% / xG 1.8-2.5 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.0%
Form & verdict
KEFLAVIK · PPG 1.33
FRAM · PPG 2.17
Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Keflavik face Fram in Iceland on Monday, July 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Keflavik a 34% chance, the draw 22% and Fram 44%, so Fram are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Keflavik and 2.5 for Fram (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Keflavik are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.17 for Fram. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.8%.