Today / Iceland / IR Reykjavik vs Throttur R.

IR Reykjavik vs Throttur R. Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 19:15

IR Reykjavik

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Throttur R.

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.9%0-24.9%0-34.1%0-4+4.6%1 1-02.6%1-16.5%1-28.1%1-36.8%1-4+7.7%2 2-02.1%2-15.4%2-26.7%2-35.6%2-4+6.3%3 3-01.2%3-13.0%3-23.7%3-33.1%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.8%4+-22.2%4+-31.8%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% 27.0% 3.70 -0.7%

Draw 20.3% 25.3% 3.95 -11.9%

Away win 53.0% 57.8% 1.73 -8.3%

Over 2.5 67.2% 71.4% 1.40 -5.9%

Over 3.5 49.1% 50.0% 2.00 -1.8%

BTTS 65.8% 73.5% 1.36 -10.5%

Home O1.5 52.5% 46.5% 2.15 +12.9%

Away O1.5 68.2% 69.0% 1.45 -1.1%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob65.8%

A 53% / xG 1.7-2.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.1%

#2 1–1 6.5%

#3 1–3 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IR Reykjavik1.7

Throttur R.2.5

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 49.1%

Form & verdict PPG

IR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.33

THROTTUR R. · PPG 1.80

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.33) vs Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

IR Reykjavik (H) 26.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.7%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -11.9%

Throttur R. (A) 53.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

IR Reykjavik face Throttur R. in Iceland on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IR Reykjavik a 27% chance, the draw 20% and Throttur R. 53%, so Throttur R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for IR Reykjavik and 2.5 for Throttur R. (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IR Reykjavik are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.80 for Throttur R.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +12.9%.

IR Reykjavik vs Throttur R. Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland Predictions