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IR Reykjavik vs Throttur R. Prediction— Iceland

Matchday 13 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 19:15

IR Reykjavik

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Throttur R.

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.9%0-24.9%0-34.1%0-4+4.6%1 1-02.6%1-16.5%1-28.1%1-36.8%1-4+7.7%2 2-02.1%2-15.4%2-26.7%2-35.6%2-4+6.3%3 3-01.2%3-13.0%3-23.7%3-33.1%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.8%4+-22.2%4+-31.8%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% 27.0% 3.70 -0.7%

Draw 20.3% 25.3% 3.95 -11.9%

Away win 53.0% 57.8% 1.73 -8.3%

Over 2.5 67.2% 71.4% 1.40 -5.9%

Over 3.5 49.1% 50.0% 2.00 -1.8%

BTTS 65.8% 73.5% 1.36 -10.5%

Home O1.5 52.5% 46.5% 2.15 +12.9%

Away O1.5 68.2% 69.0% 1.45 -1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 15%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob65.8%

A 53% / xG 1.7-2.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.1%

#2 1–1✓ 6.5%

#3 1–3 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IR Reykjavik1.7

Throttur R.2.5

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 49.1%

Form & verdict PPG

IR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.33

THROTTUR R. · PPG 1.80

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.33) vs Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

IR Reykjavik (H) 26.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.7%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -11.9%

Throttur R. (A) 53.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

IR Reykjavik face Throttur R. in Iceland on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IR Reykjavik a 27% chance, the draw 20% and Throttur R. 53%, so Throttur R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for IR Reykjavik and 2.5 for Throttur R. (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IR Reykjavik are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.80 for Throttur R.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 1-1.

IR Reykjavik vs Throttur R. Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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