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Njardvik vs Grindavik Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 19:15

Njardvik

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Grindavik

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.7%0-19.5%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.1%1-111.4%1-23.1%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.6%2-16.8%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.0%3-12.7%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 64.5% 1.55 -23.4%

Draw 30.9% 25.0% 4.00 +23.6%

Away win 19.7% 20.8% 4.80 -3.3%

Over 2.5 36.0% 64.5% 1.55 -44.2%

Over 3.5 17.6% 42.0% 2.38 -34.9%

BTTS 45.6% 63.7% 1.57 -28.4%

Home O1.5 36.8% 66.7% 1.50 -44.8%

Away O1.5 19.1% 33.3% 3.00 -25.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.6%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.5 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.7%

#2 1–0 21.1%

#3 1–1 11.4%

#4 2–0 12.6%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Njardvik1.2

Grindavik0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.0% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NJARDVIK · PPG 2.17

GRINDAVIK · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=49.4%

Win probability 1X2

Njardvik (H) 49.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -23.4%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +23.6%

Grindavik (A) 19.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Njardvik face Grindavik in Iceland on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Njardvik a 49% chance, the draw 31% and Grindavik 20%, so Njardvik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Njardvik and 0.5 for Grindavik (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Njardvik are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.80 for Grindavik. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +23.6%.

Njardvik vs Grindavik Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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