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Aeggir vs HK Kopavogur Prediction— Iceland

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 19:15

Aeggir

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

HK Kopavogur

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.9%0-25.0%0-33.5%0-4+2.9%1 1-04.0%1-18.2%1-28.5%1-35.8%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.3%2-16.9%2-27.1%2-34.9%2-4+4.1%3 3-01.9%3-13.9%3-24.0%3-32.7%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.4%4+-22.4%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.8% 21.7% 4.60 +50.9%

Draw 22.4% 22.7% 4.40 -0.9%

Away win 44.8% 66.7% 1.50 -32.8%

Over 2.5 67.2% 75.2% 1.33 -10.6%

Over 3.5 44.1% 55.6% 1.80 -20.6%

BTTS 63.2% 73.5% 1.36 -14.1%

Home O1.5 52.5% 42.6% 2.35 +23.4%

Away O1.5 50.2% 75.2% 1.33 -33.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.2%

A 45% / xG 1.7-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.9%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aeggir1.7

HK Kopavogur2.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AEGGIR · PPG 0.50

HK KOPAVOGUR · PPG 0.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.50), Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Aeggir (H) 32.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +50.9%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -0.9%

HK Kopavogur (A) 44.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -32.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aeggir face HK Kopavogur in Iceland on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aeggir a 33% chance, the draw 22% and HK Kopavogur 45%, so HK Kopavogur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Aeggir and 2.1 for HK Kopavogur (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aeggir are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.50 for HK Kopavogur. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +50.9%.

Aeggir vs HK Kopavogur Prediction— Iceland

Match Preview & Prediction

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