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Dinamo Brest vs Slavia Mozyr Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 15:45

Dinamo Brest

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Slavia Mozyr

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.1% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-19.0%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.6%1-112.4%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-18.6%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.0%3-14.0%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 50.0% 2.00 +2.2%

Draw 26.1% 33.3% 3.00 -13.0%

Away win 22.8% 28.6% 3.50 -12.1%

Over 2.5 49.9% 49.0% 2.04 +1.8%

Over 3.5 28.8% 29.1% 3.44 -0.6%

BTTS 48.4% 54.6% 1.83 -11.4%

Home O1.5 41.6% 46.9% 2.13 -11.4%

Away O1.5 21.2% 29.9% 3.34 -17.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 0%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 51% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 15.6%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Brest1.4

Slavia Mozyr0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO BREST · PPG 1.17

SLAVIA MOZYR · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.17) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Brest (H) 51.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +2.2%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.0%

Slavia Mozyr (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Brest face Slavia Mozyr in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Brest a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Slavia Mozyr 23%, so Dinamo Brest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dinamo Brest and 0.8 for Slavia Mozyr (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Brest are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.50 for Slavia Mozyr. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.2%.

Dinamo Brest vs Slavia Mozyr Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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