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Huima/Urho vs JS Hercules Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 13:00

Huima/Urho

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

JS Hercules

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 7.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.8% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.1%0-20.1%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-00.4%1-10.8%1-20.7%1-30.4%1-4+0.2%2 2-01.2%2-12.1%2-21.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.2%3-13.7%3-23.2%3-31.8%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-014.1%4+-124.2%4+-220.8%4+-311.9%4+-4+7.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.1% 84.7% 1.18 -13.7%

Draw 17.2% 15.4% 6.50 +7.1%

Away win 9.7% 11.1% 9.00 -7.6%

Over 2.5 79.8% 85.5% 1.17 -6.6%

Over 3.5 69.9% 71.4% 1.40 -2.1%

BTTS 69.4% 71.4% 1.40 -2.8%

Home O1.5 77.8% 89.3% 1.12 -12.9%

Away O1.5 50.2% 36.8% 2.72 +36.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 92%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 11.8%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)5.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob69.4%

H 73% / xG 5.4-1.7 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–1 5.3%

#2 4–1 5.0%

#3 5–2 4.6%

#4 4–2 4.3%

#5 3–1 3.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Huima/Urho5.4

JS Hercules1.7

COMBINED 7.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.8% · O3.5 PROB 69.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HUIMA/URHO · PPG 2.00

JS HERCULES · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.60) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Huima/Urho (H) 73.1%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -13.7%

Draw 17.2%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +7.1%

JS Hercules (A) 9.7%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Huima/Urho face JS Hercules in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Huima/Urho a 73% chance, the draw 17% and JS Hercules 10%, so Huima/Urho are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.4 for Huima/Urho and 1.7 for JS Hercules (7.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Huima/Urho are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.60 for JS Hercules. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +36.5%.

Huima/Urho vs JS Hercules Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

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