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Yongin City vs Cheongju Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 10:30

Yongin City

PPG 0.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cheongju

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+12.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-17.1%0-24.8%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.4%1-111.3%1-27.6%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.7%2-19.0%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.6%3-14.8%3-23.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 43.5% 2.30 +6.3%

Draw 25.3% 32.3% 3.10 -12.9%

Away win 28.6% 33.9% 2.95 -9.4%

Over 2.5 61.3% 48.1% 2.08 +27.5%

Over 3.5 37.5% 26.7% 3.75 +40.6%

BTTS 62.4% 55.6% 1.80 +12.3%

Home O1.5 50.1% 42.0% 2.38 +19.2%

Away O1.5 38.4% 36.4% 2.75 +5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

ROI 50.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.4%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 0–0 5.2%

#5 2–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yongin City1.6

Cheongju1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

YONGIN CITY · PPG 0.88

CHEONGJU · PPG 1.29

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.88) vs Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Yongin City (H) 46.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +6.3%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.9%

Cheongju (A) 28.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yongin City face Cheongju in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yongin City a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Cheongju 29%, so Yongin City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Yongin City and 1.3 for Cheongju (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yongin City are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.29 for Cheongju. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +40.6%.

Yongin City vs Cheongju Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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