Today / South Korea - K League 2 / Hwaseong vs Paju Citizen

Hwaseong vs Paju Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 10:30

Hwaseong

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Paju Citizen

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-17.2%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.2%1-111.7%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.5%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.8%3-15.2%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 52.4% 1.91 +4.5%

Draw 25.4% 31.3% 3.20 -11.2%

Away win 19.9% 25.3% 3.95 -12.8%

Over 2.5 50.6% 47.6% 2.10 +6.3%

Over 3.5 29.3% 26.7% 3.75 +5.9%

BTTS 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Home O1.5 52.5% 47.6% 2.10 +10.3%

Away O1.5 23.7% 26.7% 3.75 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 2–0 10.8%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hwaseong1.6

Paju Citizen0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HWASEONG · PPG 1.73

PAJU CITIZEN · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Hwaseong (H) 54.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +4.5%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.2%

Paju Citizen (A) 19.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hwaseong face Paju Citizen in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hwaseong a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Paju Citizen 20%, so Hwaseong are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hwaseong and 0.9 for Paju Citizen (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hwaseong are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.00 for Paju Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +10.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Hwaseong vs Paju Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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