Today / South Korea - K League 2 / Daegu vs Seongnam

Daegu vs Seongnam Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 10:30

Daegu

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Seongnam

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.7%0-23.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.5%1-111.4%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.7%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.5%3-15.5%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 52.6% 1.90 +0.1%

Draw 24.5% 29.9% 3.35 -10.8%

Away win 22.8% 26.0% 3.85 -7.3%

Over 2.5 51.7% 51.3% 1.95 +0.8%

Over 3.5 30.3% 29.4% 3.40 +3.0%

BTTS 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Home O1.5 52.5% 50.0% 2.00 +5.0%

Away O1.5 31.2% 29.4% 3.40 +6.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 53% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daegu1.7

Seongnam1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DAEGU · PPG 2.00

SEONGNAM · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Daegu (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +0.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.8%

Seongnam (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daegu face Seongnam in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daegu a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Seongnam 23%, so Daegu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Daegu and 1.0 for Seongnam (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daegu are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.29 for Seongnam. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +6.1%. This match finished 3-2.

Daegu vs Seongnam Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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