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Paloma vs Halstenbek-R. Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 31 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 08:45

Paloma

PPG 2.08 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Halstenbek-R.

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.0%0-20.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.8%1-13.7%1-22.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.4%2 2-05.0%2-16.5%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.9%3-17.6%3-24.9%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-013.0%4+-116.7%4+-210.8%4+-34.6%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.9% — — —

Draw 11.5% — — —

Away win 9.6% — — —

Over 2.5 86.0% — — —

Over 3.5 71.0% — — —

BTTS 70.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 87%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob70.3%

H 79% / xG 3.5-1.3 / O2.5 86% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.6%

#2 4–1 6.7%

#3 2–1✓ 6.5%

#4 3–0 5.9%

#5 4–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paloma3.5

Halstenbek-R.1.3

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 86.0% · O3.5 PROB 71.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PALOMA · PPG 2.08

HALSTENBEK-R. · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.08), Away POOR (0.29) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Paloma (H) 78.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 11.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Halstenbek-R. (A) 9.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Paloma face Halstenbek-R. in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paloma a 79% chance, the draw 12% and Halstenbek-R. 10%, so Paloma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Paloma and 1.3 for Halstenbek-R. (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 86% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paloma are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 0.29 for Halstenbek-R.. This match finished 2-1.

Paloma vs Halstenbek-R. Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

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