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St George City vs UNSW Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 09:15

St George City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

UNSW

PPG 0.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-18.6%0-25.3%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.0%1-112.3%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-18.8%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.4%3-14.2%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 42.6% 2.35 +7.9%

Draw 25.1% 30.3% 3.30 -10.3%

Away win 29.0% 37.7% 2.65 -13.9%

Over 2.5 54.0% 55.6% 1.80 -2.8%

Over 3.5 33.8% 33.3% 3.00 +1.4%

BTTS 55.6% 61.7% 1.62 -9.9%

Home O1.5 43.8% 44.4% 2.25 -1.5%

Away O1.5 38.4% 42.0% 2.38 -8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 95 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.0%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St George City1.4

UNSW1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ST GEORGE CITY · PPG 1.50

UNSW · PPG 0.30

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=45.9%

Win probability 1X2

St George City (H) 45.9%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +7.9%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.3%

UNSW (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

St George City face UNSW in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St George City a 46% chance, the draw 25% and UNSW 29%, so St George City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for St George City and 1.2 for UNSW (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St George City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.30 for UNSW. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.9%.

St George City vs UNSW Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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