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NWS Spirit vs S George Saints Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 07:30

NWS Spirit

PPG 1.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

S George Saints

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-18.3%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.9%1-112.3%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.1%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.1%3-14.5%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 59.9% 1.67 -14.5%

Draw 25.9% 27.4% 3.65 -3.3%

Away win 22.9% 22.7% 4.40 +0.5%

Over 2.5 49.9% 56.5% 1.77 -11.7%

Over 3.5 28.8% 33.9% 2.95 -9.0%

BTTS 48.4% 58.8% 1.70 -17.7%

Home O1.5 45.2% 58.8% 1.70 -23.2%

Away O1.5 23.7% 30.8% 3.25 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 95 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NWS Spirit1.5

S George Saints0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 1.64

S GEORGE SAINTS · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.64) vs P(Home)=51.2%

Win probability 1X2

NWS Spirit (H) 51.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -14.5%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -3.3%

S George Saints (A) 22.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

NWS Spirit face S George Saints in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NWS Spirit a 51% chance, the draw 26% and S George Saints 23%, so NWS Spirit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for NWS Spirit and 0.9 for S George Saints (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NWS Spirit are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.83 for S George Saints. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.5%.

NWS Spirit vs S George Saints Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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