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APIA Leichhardt vs Sydney FC B Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 07:30

APIA Leichhardt

PPG 2.55 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sydney FC B

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.9%0-22.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.4%1-18.7%1-25.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.2%3-17.2%3-24.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-16.8%4+-24.0%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 69.4% 1.44 -22.2%

Draw 22.3% 23.8% 4.20 -3.8%

Away win 23.7% 16.0% 6.25 +28.9%

Over 2.5 64.0% 64.5% 1.55 -0.8%

Over 3.5 41.4% 42.6% 2.35 -2.7%

BTTS 62.4% 60.6% 1.65 +3.0%

Home O1.5 62.5% 70.4% 1.42 -11.3%

Away O1.5 35.7% 29.0% 3.45 +23.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 159 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.4%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1✓ 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 3–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

APIA Leichhardt2.2

Sydney FC B1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.4%

Form & verdict PPG

APIA LEICHHARDT · PPG 2.55

SYDNEY FC B · PPG 1.40

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.55) vs P(Home)=54.0%

Win probability 1X2

APIA Leichhardt (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -22.2%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.8%

Sydney FC B (A) 23.7%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

APIA Leichhardt face Sydney FC B in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives APIA Leichhardt a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Sydney FC B 24%, so APIA Leichhardt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for APIA Leichhardt and 1.2 for Sydney FC B (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, APIA Leichhardt are averaging 2.55 points per game versus 1.40 for Sydney FC B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +28.9%. This match finished 2-1.

APIA Leichhardt vs Sydney FC B Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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