Today / Australia - NPL New South Wales / Sydney Olympic vs Wollongong W.

Sydney Olympic vs Wollongong W. Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 07:00

Sydney Olympic

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Wollongong W.

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-113.1%0-29.6%0-34.7%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.4%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.0%2-15.9%2-24.3%2-32.1%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.3%3-11.9%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 44.4% 2.25 -19.9%

Draw 25.7% 28.2% 3.55 -5.3%

Away win 44.6% 37.7% 2.65 +18.2%

Over 2.5 52.5% 58.8% 1.70 -10.8%

Over 3.5 32.9% 38.2% 2.62 -13.8%

BTTS 55.0% 63.7% 1.57 -13.7%

Home O1.5 34.6% 45.5% 2.20 -23.9%

Away O1.5 50.2% 40.0% 2.50 +25.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 160 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.0%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 0–2 9.6%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney Olympic0.9

Wollongong W.1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY OLYMPIC · PPG 0.50

WOLLONGONG W. · PPG 1.42

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.42) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Sydney Olympic (H) 29.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -19.9%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.3%

Wollongong W. (A) 44.6%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney Olympic face Wollongong W. in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney Olympic a 30% chance, the draw 26% and Wollongong W. 45%, so Wollongong W. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sydney Olympic and 1.5 for Wollongong W. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney Olympic are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.42 for Wollongong W.. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +25.5%. This match finished 3-2.

Sydney Olympic vs Wollongong W. Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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