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Sydney Olympic vs Wollongong W. Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 07:00

Sydney Olympic

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wollongong W.

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-113.1%0-29.6%0-34.7%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.4%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.0%2-15.9%2-24.3%2-32.1%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.3%3-11.9%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 44.4% 2.25 -19.9%

Draw 25.7% 28.2% 3.55 -5.3%

Away win 44.6% 37.7% 2.65 +18.2%

Over 2.5 52.5% 58.8% 1.70 -10.8%

Over 3.5 32.9% 38.2% 2.62 -13.8%

BTTS 55.0% 63.7% 1.57 -13.7%

Home O1.5 34.6% 45.5% 2.20 -23.9%

Away O1.5 50.2% 40.0% 2.50 +25.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 95 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.0%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 0–2 9.6%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney Olympic0.9

Wollongong W.1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY OLYMPIC · PPG 0.50

WOLLONGONG W. · PPG 1.42

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.42) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Sydney Olympic (H) 29.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -19.9%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.3%

Wollongong W. (A) 44.6%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney Olympic face Wollongong W. in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney Olympic a 30% chance, the draw 26% and Wollongong W. 45%, so Wollongong W. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sydney Olympic and 1.5 for Wollongong W. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney Olympic are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.42 for Wollongong W.. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +25.5%.

Sydney Olympic vs Wollongong W. Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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