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SD Raiders vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 07:00

SD Raiders

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Blacktown City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.8%0-24.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.3%1-110.3%1-27.3%1-33.4%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.9%3-15.5%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.6%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 41.7% 2.40 +15.9%

Draw 24.7% 29.4% 3.40 -9.6%

Away win 27.0% 39.2% 2.55 -18.7%

Over 2.5 61.3% 58.8% 1.70 +4.2%

Over 3.5 37.5% 36.4% 2.75 +3.1%

BTTS 61.3% 64.5% 1.55 -5.0%

Home O1.5 52.5% 47.6% 2.10 +10.3%

Away O1.5 38.4% 46.5% 2.15 -17.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 95 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SD Raiders1.8

Blacktown City1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SD RAIDERS · PPG 1.25

BLACKTOWN CITY · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

SD Raiders (H) 48.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +15.9%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.6%

Blacktown City (A) 27.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

SD Raiders face Blacktown City in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SD Raiders a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Blacktown City 27%, so SD Raiders are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for SD Raiders and 1.4 for Blacktown City (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SD Raiders are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Blacktown City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.0%.

SD Raiders vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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