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Sorrento vs Fremantle City Prediction— Australia

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 07:00

Sorrento logo
Sorrento
PPG 0.78 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Fremantle City logo
Fremantle City
PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-18.1%0-27.6%0-34.7%0-4+3.4%1 1-05.5%1-110.3%1-29.6%1-36.0%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.5%2-16.5%2-26.1%2-33.8%2-4+2.7%3 3-01.5%3-12.7%3-22.6%3-31.6%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 23.7%
Draw 21.2%
Away win 55.1%
Over 2.5 61.3%
Over 3.5 37.5%
BTTS 55.6%
Home O1.5 41.2%
Away O1.5 50.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob55.6%

A 55% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%
#2 1–2 9.6%
#3 0–2 7.6%
#4 0–1 8.1%
#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sorrento1.3
Fremantle City1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SORRENTO · PPG 0.78

FREMANTLE CITY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.78), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sorrento (H) 23.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 21.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Fremantle City (A) 55.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sorrento face Fremantle City in Australia on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sorrento a 24% chance, the draw 21% and Fremantle City 55%, so Fremantle City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sorrento and 1.9 for Fremantle City (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sorrento are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Fremantle City.

PredictVantage

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