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Sorrento vs Fremantle City Prediction— Australia

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 07:00

Sorrento

PPG 0.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Fremantle City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-18.1%0-27.6%0-34.7%0-4+3.4%1 1-05.5%1-110.3%1-29.6%1-36.0%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.5%2-16.5%2-26.1%2-33.8%2-4+2.7%3 3-01.5%3-12.7%3-22.6%3-31.6%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.7% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 55.1% — — —

Over 2.5 61.3% — — —

Over 3.5 37.5% — — —

BTTS 55.6% — — —

Home O1.5 41.2% — — —

Away O1.5 50.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2✓ 7.6%

#4 0–1 8.1%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sorrento1.3

Fremantle City1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SORRENTO · PPG 0.78

FREMANTLE CITY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.78), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sorrento (H) 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fremantle City (A) 55.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sorrento face Fremantle City in Australia on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sorrento a 24% chance, the draw 21% and Fremantle City 55%, so Fremantle City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sorrento and 1.9 for Fremantle City (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sorrento are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Fremantle City. This match finished 0-2.

Sorrento vs Fremantle City Prediction— Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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