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O. Kingsway vs Perth RedStar Prediction— Australia

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 07:00

O. Kingsway

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Perth RedStar

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.0%0-23.8%0-31.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.2%1-19.4%1-27.2%1-33.6%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.8%3-15.7%3-24.3%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.2%4+-23.2%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 48.8% 2.05 +1.1%

Draw 22.3% 29.4% 3.40 -14.5%

Away win 28.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.9%

Over 2.5 66.4% 65.4% 1.53 +1.6%

Over 3.5 43.0% 44.4% 2.25 -3.3%

BTTS 63.2% 69.4% 1.44 -9.0%

Home O1.5 55.1% 55.6% 1.80 -0.8%

Away O1.5 50.2% 45.5% 2.20 +10.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

O. Kingsway1.9

Perth RedStar1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

O. KINGSWAY · PPG 1.86

PERTH REDSTAR · PPG 1.86

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.86), Away GOOD (1.86)

Win probability 1X2

O. Kingsway (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +1.1%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.5%

Perth RedStar (A) 28.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

O. Kingsway face Perth RedStar in Australia on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives O. Kingsway a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Perth RedStar 28%, so O. Kingsway are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for O. Kingsway and 1.5 for Perth RedStar (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, O. Kingsway are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.86 for Perth RedStar. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +10.4%.

O. Kingsway vs Perth RedStar Prediction— Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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