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Maitland vs Adamstown R. Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 06:30

Maitland

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adamstown R.

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.3%0-23.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.5%1-110.0%1-26.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.4%3-15.9%3-24.0%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.3%4+-22.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 57.1% 1.75 -13.7%

Draw 23.8% 26.3% 3.80 -5.7%

Away win 27.0% 27.8% 3.60 -1.7%

Over 2.5 61.8% 71.4% 1.40 -13.5%

Over 3.5 39.9% 54.1% 1.85 -26.2%

BTTS 62.4% 73.5% 1.36 -15.1%

Home O1.5 55.1% 69.4% 1.44 -20.7%

Away O1.5 38.4% 47.6% 2.10 -19.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.4%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maitland1.9

Adamstown R.1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MAITLAND · PPG 1.50

ADAMSTOWN R. · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Maitland (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -13.7%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.7%

Adamstown R. (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maitland face Adamstown R. in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maitland a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Adamstown R. 27%, so Maitland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Maitland and 1.3 for Adamstown R. (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maitland are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.13 for Adamstown R..

Maitland vs Adamstown R. Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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