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Waterford vs St. Patricks Prediction— Ireland

Matchday 24 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 19:00

Waterford

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

St. Patricks

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-111.4%0-28.7%0-34.4%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.9%1-112.2%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.2%2-16.5%2-25.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.5%3-12.3%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% 19.6% 5.10 +58.1%

Draw 25.5% 26.0% 3.85 -1.1%

Away win 43.5% 61.3% 1.63 -29.1%

Over 2.5 54.0% 55.6% 1.80 -2.8%

Over 3.5 32.9% 33.3% 3.00 -1.3%

BTTS 55.6% 57.1% 1.75 -2.7%

Home O1.5 35.9% 28.2% 3.55 +27.4%

Away O1.5 50.2% 58.8% 1.70 -14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.6%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.2%

#2 0–1 11.4%

#3 1–2 9.3%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 0–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Waterford1.1

St. Patricks1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

WATERFORD · PPG 1.09

ST. PATRICKS · PPG 1.18

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.09), Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Waterford (H) 31.0%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +58.1%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -1.1%

St. Patricks (A) 43.5%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -29.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Waterford face St. Patricks in Ireland on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Waterford a 31% chance, the draw 26% and St. Patricks 44%, so St. Patricks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Waterford and 1.5 for St. Patricks (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Waterford are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.18 for St. Patricks. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +58.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Waterford vs St. Patricks Prediction— Ireland

Match Preview & Prediction

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