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Wexford vs Kerry Prediction— Ireland

Regular Season - 23 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 18:45

Wexford

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kerry

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-18.5%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.3%1-112.4%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.0%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.1%3-14.4%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 52.6% 1.90 -7.3%

Draw 26.9% 29.0% 3.45 -4.3%

Away win 24.3% 25.3% 3.95 -2.4%

Over 2.5 48.7% 50.0% 2.00 -2.6%

Over 3.5 28.8% 28.2% 3.55 +1.3%

BTTS 48.4% 55.6% 1.80 -12.9%

Home O1.5 44.9% 50.0% 2.00 -10.2%

Away O1.5 22.1% 30.3% 3.30 -16.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wexford1.5

Kerry0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WEXFORD · PPG 1.82

KERRY · PPG 0.55

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.82) vs P(Home)=48.8%

Win probability 1X2

Wexford (H) 48.8%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -7.3%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.3%

Kerry (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wexford face Kerry in Ireland on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wexford a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Kerry 24%, so Wexford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Wexford and 0.9 for Kerry (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wexford are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.55 for Kerry. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.3%.

Wexford vs Kerry Prediction— Ireland

Match Preview & Prediction

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