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Finn Harps vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland

Regular Season - 23 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 18:45

Finn Harps

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Treaty Utd

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-18.2%0-24.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.5%1-112.3%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.2%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.7%3-14.6%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 37.7% 2.65 +29.3%

Draw 27.0% 29.0% 3.45 -4.1%

Away win 24.2% 40.3% 2.48 -24.0%

Over 2.5 49.9% 55.6% 1.80 -10.2%

Over 3.5 29.2% 33.3% 3.00 -7.4%

BTTS 52.6% 62.5% 1.60 -15.8%

Home O1.5 45.2% 43.5% 2.30 +4.0%

Away O1.5 31.2% 45.5% 2.20 -31.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 0–0 8.4%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Finn Harps1.5

Treaty Utd1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FINN HARPS · PPG 1.45

TREATY UTD · PPG 0.45

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.45) vs P(Home)=48.8%

Win probability 1X2

Finn Harps (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +29.3%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.1%

Treaty Utd (A) 24.2%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -24.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Finn Harps face Treaty Utd in Ireland on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Finn Harps a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Treaty Utd 24%, so Finn Harps are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Finn Harps and 1.0 for Treaty Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Finn Harps are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.45 for Treaty Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.3%.

Finn Harps vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland

Match Preview & Prediction

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