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Cork City vs Longford Town Prediction— Ireland

Regular Season - 23 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 18:45

Cork City

PPG 2.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Longford Town

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.6% vs bookmaker-implied 76.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-12.9%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.9%1-16.8%1-21.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.2%2-17.9%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.6%3-16.1%3-21.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.6%4+-16.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.6% 76.3% 1.31 -11.4%

Draw 17.6% 21.1% 4.75 -9.8%

Away win 14.8% 9.8% 10.25 +31.0%

Over 2.5 61.3% 58.8% 1.70 +4.2%

Over 3.5 37.5% 35.7% 2.80 +5.0%

BTTS 48.4% 48.8% 2.05 -0.8%

Home O1.5 62.5% 69.4% 1.44 -10.0%

Away O1.5 19.1% 18.2% 5.50 +3.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.4%

H 68% / xG 2.3-0.5 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.2%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 3–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cork City2.3

Longford Town0.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CORK CITY · PPG 2.73

LONGFORD TOWN · PPG 0.73

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.73), Away POOR (0.73) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cork City (H) 67.6%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -11.4%

Draw 17.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -9.8%

Longford Town (A) 14.8%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV +31.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cork City face Longford Town in Ireland on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cork City a 68% chance, the draw 18% and Longford Town 15%, so Cork City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Cork City and 0.5 for Longford Town (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cork City are averaging 2.73 points per game versus 0.73 for Longford Town. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.0%.

Cork City vs Longford Town Prediction— Ireland

Match Preview & Prediction

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