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Dundalk vs Drogheda Utd Prediction— Ireland

Matchday 24 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 18:45

Dundalk

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Drogheda Utd

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.8%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.0%1-18.6%1-24.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-19.8%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.8%3-17.4%3-24.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-17.1%4+-23.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 62.9% 1.59 -8.4%

Draw 22.5% 24.4% 4.10 -4.7%

Away win 19.9% 20.0% 5.00 -0.3%

Over 2.5 64.0% 61.7% 1.62 +3.7%

Over 3.5 41.4% 39.2% 2.55 +5.6%

BTTS 62.4% 61.7% 1.62 +1.1%

Home O1.5 62.5% 63.7% 1.57 -1.9%

Away O1.5 35.7% 31.3% 3.20 +14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.4%

H 58% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 3–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundalk2.3

Drogheda Utd1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDALK · PPG 1.82

DROGHEDA UTD · PPG 0.73

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.82) vs P(Home)=57.6%

Win probability 1X2

Dundalk (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.59 · IMPLIED 62.9% EV -8.4%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.7%

Drogheda Utd (A) 19.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundalk face Drogheda Utd in Ireland on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundalk a 58% chance, the draw 23% and Drogheda Utd 20%, so Dundalk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Dundalk and 1.1 for Drogheda Utd (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundalk are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.73 for Drogheda Utd. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +14.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Dundalk vs Drogheda Utd Prediction— Ireland

Match Preview & Prediction

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