Today / Ireland / Dundalk vs Drogheda Utd
Dundalk vs Drogheda Utd Prediction— Ireland
Regular Season - 24 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 18:45
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 58% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.4%
Form & verdict
DUNDALK · PPG 1.82
DROGHEDA UTD · PPG 0.73
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.82) vs P(Home)=57.6%
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Dundalk face Drogheda Utd in Ireland on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundalk a 58% chance, the draw 23% and Drogheda Utd 20%, so Dundalk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Dundalk and 1.1 for Drogheda Utd (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundalk are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.73 for Drogheda Utd. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +14.2%.