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Dnepr Mogilev vs FC Minsk Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 15 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 15:30

Dnepr Mogilev

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDDD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

FC Minsk

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-113.6%0-26.8%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.6%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.8%2-16.7%2-23.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.2%3-12.2%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 41.7% 2.40 -9.3%

Draw 31.6% 34.7% 2.88 -9.0%

Away win 30.7% 34.7% 2.88 -11.6%

Over 2.5 44.0% 43.3% 2.31 +1.6%

Over 3.5 23.2% 23.8% 4.20 -1.5%

BTTS 48.4% 51.3% 1.95 -5.6%

Home O1.5 35.9% 36.9% 2.71 -2.7%

Away O1.5 31.2% 32.8% 3.05 -4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.4%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.7%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 13.6%

#4 1–0 13.6%

#5 0–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dnepr Mogilev1.0

FC Minsk1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DNEPR MOGILEV · PPG 1.00

FC MINSK · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Dnepr Mogilev (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -9.3%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -9.0%

FC Minsk (A) 30.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dnepr Mogilev face FC Minsk in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dnepr Mogilev a 38% chance, the draw 32% and FC Minsk 31%, so Dnepr Mogilev are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Dnepr Mogilev and 1.0 for FC Minsk (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dnepr Mogilev are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.80 for FC Minsk. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Dnepr Mogilev vs FC Minsk Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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