Today / South Korea - K League 2 / Suwon City vs Jeonnam

Suwon City vs Jeonnam Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 10:30

Suwon City

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jeonnam

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+11.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.4%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.0%1-18.0%1-24.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.4%2-19.6%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.6%3-17.6%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-17.9%4+-24.5%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 54.1% 1.85 +6.6%

Draw 22.5% 29.0% 3.45 -13.4%

Away win 19.9% 26.3% 3.80 -14.6%

Over 2.5 64.6% 57.8% 1.73 +11.8%

Over 3.5 42.5% 36.4% 2.75 +16.9%

BTTS 62.4% 59.9% 1.67 +4.2%

Home O1.5 62.5% 54.6% 1.83 +14.4%

Away O1.5 35.7% 33.3% 3.00 +7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 100%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.4%

H 58% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suwon City2.4

Jeonnam1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SUWON CITY · PPG 2.00

JEONNAM · PPG 0.64

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=57.6%

Win probability 1X2

Suwon City (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +6.6%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.4%

Jeonnam (A) 19.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Suwon City face Jeonnam in South Korea - K League 2 on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suwon City a 58% chance, the draw 23% and Jeonnam 20%, so Suwon City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Suwon City and 1.1 for Jeonnam (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suwon City are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.64 for Jeonnam. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.3%.

Suwon City vs Jeonnam Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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