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Cheonan City vs Gimhae Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 10:30

Cheonan City

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimhae

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-16.5%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.2%1-111.0%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.2%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.2%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-13.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 54.6% 1.83 +2.3%

Draw 24.6% 28.2% 3.55 -7.6%

Away win 19.5% 25.6% 3.90 -14.4%

Over 2.5 50.0% 48.8% 2.05 +2.5%

Over 3.5 29.3% 26.7% 3.75 +5.9%

BTTS 51.4% 54.6% 1.83 -5.9%

Home O1.5 52.5% 50.0% 2.00 +5.0%

Away O1.5 21.2% 28.6% 3.50 -15.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 100%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.4%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.2%

#2 2–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cheonan City1.7

Gimhae0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CHEONAN CITY · PPG 1.38

GIMHAE · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Cheonan City (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +2.3%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.6%

Gimhae (A) 19.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cheonan City face Gimhae in South Korea - K League 2 on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cheonan City a 56% chance, the draw 25% and Gimhae 20%, so Cheonan City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Cheonan City and 0.7 for Gimhae (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cheonan City are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.75 for Gimhae. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.9%.

Cheonan City vs Gimhae Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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