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Preston Lions vs Hume City Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 20 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 10:30

Preston Lions

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hume City

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-110.6%0-26.9%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.0%1-112.8%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.0%2-17.7%2-25.0%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.4%3-13.1%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 48.8% 2.05 -24.4%

Draw 27.7% 29.4% 3.40 -3.5%

Away win 35.5% 32.3% 3.10 +10.1%

Over 2.5 50.2% 56.5% 1.77 -11.2%

Over 3.5 29.2% 33.9% 2.95 -8.3%

BTTS 55.6% 61.7% 1.62 -9.9%

Home O1.5 37.7% 51.3% 1.95 -26.5%

Away O1.5 38.4% 39.2% 2.55 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -4.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.6%

A 36% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.3%

#3 0–1 10.6%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 1–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Preston Lions1.2

Hume City1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PRESTON LIONS · PPG 1.43

HUME CITY · PPG 2.22

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.22) vs Home AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Preston Lions (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -24.4%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.5%

Hume City (A) 35.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Preston Lions face Hume City in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Preston Lions a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Hume City 36%, so Preston Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Preston Lions and 1.3 for Hume City (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Preston Lions are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 2.22 for Hume City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.1%.

Preston Lions vs Hume City Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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