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Oakleigh C. vs Avondale Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 20 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 10:15

Oakleigh C.

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Avondale

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.8%0-23.2%0-31.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-04.8%1-18.1%1-26.7%1-33.7%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.6%3-16.0%3-25.0%3-32.8%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-15.1%4+-24.3%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 48.8% 2.05 -7.5%

Draw 21.9% 27.0% 3.70 -11.4%

Away win 33.0% 33.9% 2.95 -2.6%

Over 2.5 67.2% 69.0% 1.45 -2.6%

Over 3.5 46.8% 46.5% 2.15 +0.6%

BTTS 66.1% 71.4% 1.40 -7.5%

Home O1.5 62.5% 59.9% 1.67 +4.4%

Away O1.5 50.2% 48.8% 2.05 +2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -4.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob66.1%

H 45% / xG 2.1-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oakleigh C.2.1

Avondale1.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 46.8%

Form & verdict PPG

OAKLEIGH C. · PPG 2.11

AVONDALE · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.11) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Oakleigh C. (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -7.5%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.4%

Avondale (A) 33.0%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oakleigh C. face Avondale in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oakleigh C. a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Avondale 33%, so Oakleigh C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Oakleigh C. and 1.7 for Avondale (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oakleigh C. are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.33 for Avondale. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.4%.

Oakleigh C. vs Avondale Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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