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Cheongju vs Daegu Prediction— South-Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 10:30

Cheongju

PPG 0.57 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Daegu

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-18.9%0-27.9%0-34.7%0-4+3.1%1 1-06.1%1-110.8%1-29.6%1-35.7%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.7%2-16.6%2-25.8%2-33.5%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.5%3-12.7%3-22.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.1% 23.8% 4.20 +26.4%

Draw 24.9% 28.2% 3.55 -7.0%

Away win 45.0% 57.1% 1.75 -21.3%

Over 2.5 60.9% 55.6% 1.80 +9.6%

Over 3.5 37.1% 33.3% 3.00 +11.3%

BTTS 60.0% 57.8% 1.73 +3.8%

Home O1.5 40.0% 30.3% 3.30 +32.0%

Away O1.5 49.8% 55.6% 1.80 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob60.0%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.9%

#4 0–1 8.9%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cheongju1.2

Daegu1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CHEONGJU · PPG 0.57

DAEGU · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Cheongju (H) 30.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +26.4%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.0%

Daegu (A) 45.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cheongju face Daegu in South-Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cheongju a 30% chance, the draw 25% and Daegu 45%, so Daegu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cheongju and 1.8 for Daegu (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cheongju are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.50 for Daegu. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +32.0%. This match finished 1-5.

Cheongju vs Daegu Prediction— South-Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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