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Ansan Greeners vs Suwon City Prediction— South-Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 10:30

Ansan Greeners

PPG 0.44 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Suwon City

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-18.6%0-28.6%0-35.8%0-4+4.6%1 1-04.9%1-19.9%1-29.9%1-36.6%1-4+5.2%2 2-02.8%2-15.6%2-25.6%2-33.8%2-4+3.0%3 3-01.1%3-12.1%3-22.1%3-31.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.2% 17.9% 5.60 +14.6%

Draw 22.0% 25.3% 3.95 -7.9%

Away win 55.8% 65.4% 1.53 -14.6%

Over 2.5 61.7% 59.9% 1.67 +3.0%

Over 3.5 39.8% 37.7% 2.65 +5.5%

BTTS 60.0% 58.8% 1.70 +2.0%

Home O1.5 35.2% 28.2% 3.55 +25.0%

Away O1.5 49.8% 63.7% 1.57 -21.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob60.0%

A 56% / xG 1.1-2.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 8.6%

#5 1–3✓ 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ansan Greeners1.1

Suwon City2.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ANSAN GREENERS · PPG 0.44

SUWON CITY · PPG 1.38

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.38) vs Home POOR (0.44)

Win probability 1X2

Ansan Greeners (H) 22.2%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +14.6%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -7.9%

Suwon City (A) 55.8%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ansan Greeners face Suwon City in South-Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ansan Greeners a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Suwon City 56%, so Suwon City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ansan Greeners and 2.0 for Suwon City (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ansan Greeners are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 1.38 for Suwon City. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +25.0%. This match finished 1-3.

Ansan Greeners vs Suwon City Prediction— South-Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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